Well, the volatility dropped a little bit today ahead of rollover. Not sure if I'm happy or sad, kind of get used to the 50 point swings and taking 10 point/contract stabs along the way. February was one of my best months ever and I couldn't have done it without the wild market. That being said, even the exhilaration of a wild party gets old after too long and you just feel like sitting quietly over a boring bowl of corn flakes. My nerves can only take so much before I go crazy. Staring at every tick of the market is exhausting, especially when there is a crazy bid-ask spread and your trying to enter or exit. Today was a great range, keep it right about there please...
There were a few textbook long entries today that I talk about in the video, one nice one later that I didn't take. As I mentioned before, I like to trade around 8:00 to 11:00 or so. I find that before or after that is questionable for my setups so it works for me. This week might be a little slower due to rollover so don't forget that. Here's the video showing how I trade rollover in case you have forgotten.
Lastly, so a follower asked me recently: “How did you trade today? Were you profitable?”
My gut reaction was to respond with a yes or no answer, but after a moment I realized how quick traders are to fall into a trap. Let me explain:
The initial part of the question asks how I traded today. A good trading day is one in which I follow my well thought out and researched trade plan. This includes all setups, entries, and specific exit strategies. This plan is 100% formulated before the trade is placed each and every time. There is not a situation in which I do not know how the trade will go, it is a finite series of “if – then” statements. I may not know which path of “if – then” statements will be executed, but do know the probabilities of each one. The plan is researched to the degree that I know, statistically, what percentage of these trades will be profitable, IF AND ONLY IF the trade plan researched and documented is followed to the letter. Any deviation throws all the research and likely the entire plan out the window. We should never be figuring out a trade plan while trading. I repeat, NEVER! This is too late! So the question of how I traded is really answered by how well I followed my plan, not if I was profitable or not. So if the researched and documented trade plan is deemed to be profitable over some period of time then the question of profitability after one or two trades or one or two days is moot because I know if I follow my plan that there is a high likelihood that profits will be the inevitable outcome.
So to answer the follower’s questions: “I traded excellent today, thank you!” ;)
Hope the video is useful to you. If so, as always, I'd appreciate a like or share somewhere of your choosing. Down the right side of this page there are a few of the "hot links" but don't feel limited by that... Go nuts! Thanks in advance!
Holy Hell, what a week! If you wanted to know what it felt like when the coyote strapped an ACME rocket to his back in his relentless pursuit of the roadrunner, this week of trading would be it. Ranges the biggest in history, every news outlet has their own reason for it but really not having a clue. Regardless, we as traders don't care, just trade the crap out of it! Be careful if you're not confident or trying to fine-tune your trading strategy, this isn't the week to do it. Standing aside is a completely valid strategy, see rule #8.
Have to say this week gave me a bit more anxiety than normal but exhilaration came with it. Had some great stretch targets but also had some stop hits... and in a hurry... Whew.
I walk through a few setups, entries and exits in the video and overall reflect on the week in review. The first minute of the video is how it felt while trading this week... WooooOOOOooooo.... Ahhhhhh... Whew... repeat. If you don't want that excitement, start at index 1:00 min. But, if you can put yourself in their mental state, you'll get what I mean. If you don't hurl it makes you a little stronger for the next time.
Hope you had a great week of trading as well...
Guten Tag Traders,
Been optimizing the setup criteria for the strong trend following setup, both long and short over the last couple of months. Today happened to get both the uptrend entry and downtrend entry in the same day which is unusual but nice opportunity to explain what these setups look like.
Interesting that the volatility has been increasing lately, usually don’t get this at the tops so seems like more new highs are on the horizon. Long term investing is certainly paying off, just received a statement on one of my accounts and it showed +37%. Haven’t seen that in a while but I’ll take it!
Attached a real time trade recording as a video is worth a thousand pictures, right?
Bonne année Traders,
Caught a nice little long trade to start out the first full week of the new year. Likely would be more in it to the long side but sooooo slow, not worth the risk of staying longer into the afternoon. Don't record the actual trades that often as I find it a distraction, one of the reasons I've been resisting a trade room. If there would be enough interest maybe I'd reconsider, not sure...
Well, with out further ado...
Hauʻoli makahiki hou Traders!
Hope Santa found your chimney and didn't give you any dense fossil fuel in your stocking! Found a few decent setups in the last few weeks and in the beginning stages of validating an additional trade setup. So far so good. Always struggled hitting those runaway trends and this little dandy is picking some of them off. For some reason the image of being stalked by something higher up the food chain keeps coming to mind while trading. Hmmm... Not sure why...
New computer is finally stabilized and now that the holidays are nearly behind us looking forward to a raging 2018 for trading. The increased resolution is nice in some ways but reduces the fonts in certain displays so I curse at it once in a while, which surprisingly doesn't make it much better. Huh. I'm going to keep trying anyway...
Anyway, last blog of the year for me, going to find some warmer climate for a bit rather than the current deep freeze. -25 Degrees F, -40 with windchill, are you kidding me? Just... not... right.
Good Trades all!
Been having a myriad of issues lately, not the least of which has been a hardware failure on the trading PC. Never realize how many programs, setups, passwords and configurations that can screw things up until you are forced to face them all at once. Having a bit of a struggle with the profits as of late as well, happens to everyone at some time or another. Good time to dig in, study the charts and... not change my trading plan. That's one thing I learned is to not deviate significantly when you have a few losses but still analyze what's going on. Crappy periods happen, as long as they're not self induced don't start off on a new direction right away, nothing is perfect all the time in every market condition.
Since I'm using some new hardware and software and configurations, some that are okay, others that, well... suck, let me know how the video works for you. Greater resolution makes everything smaller, not sure why this is required as none of us are getting any younger and squinting at the screen can't be an improvement... Well, that's a discussion for another day.
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