Buenos Dias Traders!
What a dandy trade day today. Wandering uptrend with only 15 points of range this morning (are the 100 pointers gone?). This offers a great opportunity to showcase how the multiple time frame (MTF) setups work and what they look like. The first few entries were solely looking at the lowest time frame while trading in the middle time frame, but if you look at the real time trade included here you'll notice a bonus, the longest time frame (4K) has a dandy support that is holding right at the reversal for the morning, yet another reason the uptrend appeared and stayed in place. Love it when a plan comes together! All time frames showing support, the professionals jumping in on the swings down right where the bid/ask volume is exhausting... nice.
Anyway, picture is worth a thousand words and a video is worth a thousand pictures so I'll stop typing and let you get to the meat of it. As always, a subscribe, like or re-share let's me know there's something useful for you and I appreciate that!
Interesting trading during the holiday week of New Years, and volatility, WOW! +100, +101, whatever it takes, right? (Call out to anyone who can tell me where this remote reference is from :). Anyhow, had a couple of dandy setups early on Friday and called it a day. Also, wanted to share a professional trick that I learned from a mentor years ago that is really handy that helps identify where and when to enter on a pullback or bounce. Hopefully it's helpful to you, really did wonders for me years ago, kinda helped frame up the price action, and uncorrelated to boot.
Lastly, trying a little different video structure this year. If all goes well should offer some improved quality for your viewing. Any issues with it please let me know. If this information is useful to you I'd appreciate a "subscribe", "like" and a "share" here... (below the video). Cheap at any price!
Happy New Year Traders!
With 2018 behind us and a brand new 2019 in our sights, I just wanted to take a moment to say "Thanks" to everyone for taking your trading journey with me over the last year and thank you for letting me be part of yours! Over the last year I've made some mistakes (probably too many :) but also made some good progress, ending up as the best year ever. Trading is truly a path with continuous learning which will never be fully complete, but whatever your current status is you should be proud that you showed up, head down, and pressed on every day! Most don't get that far and never truly walk the walk... I sincerely look forward to learning even more with you in the coming year!
Wishing you a Happy and a Prosperous New Year!
Micro-Update: ("mini" would be too confusing, yes?)
Nice 10/cntrct short on this last one at the + marks the spot. Had a small loss on the previous two (see marks), first a short, then a long attempt. This is nice as well as it shows that with a 33% win rate I'm still up handily for the day... If only there was a way to hang on to these runners for much more when they happen. I did try once to quantify this with some trailing stop scenarios and it always ended up good with the runner but ended up losing a little more on the ones I would have taken a profit target on earlier, and overall made less profit. The runners, percentage wise, just weren't enough to make up for taking less profit on the non-runners. Dang math, always in the way... I'll keep trying but don't see a simple answer. If someone else finds the trick let me know.
Rainbows and Unicorns Traders!
Quick video talking about the longer term picture and some of the possibilities I see down the road and this week’s day trades on Friday. This extra volatility is great for stretching the profit targets, especially shorts lately. Had a few traders insinuate that I was a Buy The Dip trader, that’s funny shit! I like shorts a LOT more that longs, they seem to move faster and farther. My profits with my strategy favor the short side almost 2:1 per trade, so no BTD here, unless it happens to be calling for it… BTD isn’t a strategy, it’s a slogan so be careful what you try to project to someone else!
Anyway, had a couple of winners in the morning and called it a day. As always, note that when I talk points I always mean per contract for consistency so these would be scaled up when I trade, FYI. Sometimes I don’t make that clear so just wanted to clarify. I have evolved my strategy to the point to where I no longer scale in or out but am all in or all out, so scaling up contracts based on my risk profile is simple…
Hope you enjoy the video, and if so I always appreciate a share somewhere and a +1 where relevant. Takes a lot of time to put these together so I hope they’re useful to you...
Have this smiling inverse Head & Shoulders staring back at me on the daily chart. Okay, I'm going to have to ask you to stop looking at me now, kinda freakin' me out... Interesting that it is nearly a perfect pattern, including the professional bar right down on the head. Conventional wisdom would say that a run through 2820 would complete the pattern and it sure seems likely. I don't trade the long term patterns like this in my day trading but in some of the longer term investments... Not sure why this is called a head and shoulders, looks more like a Praying Mantis to me... Anyway, the 2700 is key support, much penetration and holding down there would break the pattern and probably cause an acceleration down as capitulation occurs. Again, we trade what we see, not what we predict (okay, not quite right, I know) but I'm going to trade it until it tells me otherwise...
An additional observation, notice how the 2700 level is a line in the sand as indicated by the EEdgeTrend, there's exhaustion on the previous pulse and divergence on the "head" of EEdgeVolume. We've already mentioned the pro bar on EEdgeHeatMap... How's that for non-correlated confirmation? Cool.
Thought I'd drop a few small updates in between some of the bigger posts just to let followers of what I'm thinking or doing while trading. Had a fantastic day yesterday, but today hit my loss limit for the day early and my risk management plan says stop. Just got whipsawed early, out of sync a bit. Doesn't happen that often but it does happen. Of course being a trader I couldn't look away and sat on my hands and let the next 3 trades go by (winners) but, still followed my plan. Stings, but it happens. Got a little Miffed? Yep. That being said, is it better to change my plan because I had a couple of losers in a row? Absolutely not. Past trade results should not change how you trade the next trade. They all stand on their own. Can I adapt and make my plan better based on this information? Maybe. Look for the positive and apply what I can for the next day and move on. That's trading... Just talking with a trading colleague saying that that's one of the hardest things in trading is taking losses but its all part of trading if you're following your plan. I'm a reactive person by nature (remember my background is engineering) who likes to solve things immediately, so in the past losing trades would make me trade MORE in an effort to make back anything I lost. There's an excepted term for this: Revenge Trading, and boy was I going to show that market. Ha! Sometimes it would work, most of the time the hole dug was deeper... and I vowed at the time not to do that again. A while ago I reached the point where I can actually do this. Not an easy task. My advice is if you find yourself in this place, work to solve it sooner rather than later, you'll be MUCH better off. Even though the losses sting you'll live to trade another day. -Trader Joe
Good Day Traders!
Hope you all had a great week of trading! Quick video reviewing what I’m seeing in the longer term charts with the recent volatility and shorter term day trading setups over the last couple of days. I’m not a big fan of posting trades setups but followers always ask for these so here ya go…
Volatility is screamin'... Be really careful as it is easy to get chopped up by putting stops close, or even normal position. If you're building on a smaller account, may want to sit aside or paper-trade for a while and keep your account intact. With this volatility It's nice when the action goes in your direction as is really moves, but when it doesn't you not only can get whacked, you can also be the victim of huge slippage. Had a couple of stops this week that were slipped a few of ticks, but I've had in the past where I got slipped 3 or 4 points, yes, points, not ticks. To say the least it sucks, just trying to save you some pain. Tradestation increased the daytrading margins way up in the last few days so be sure to watch your margin as well. Don't want to get your account locked because you missed a margin change.
Heck of a week, expecting more of the same to come…
Been squawking on any media I could to anyone who would listen this last week that we have an interesting, if not historical phenomena showing up on the EminiEdge HeatMap Indicator, and by implication, the ES market. Professional interest is showing up on the daily chart on the retrace to the all time highs recently posted. A lot of traders I talk to will argue this point and question my interpretation of what I see, and that's okay with me. I don't normally make long term "calls" but simply try to let others know one more piece of information that may be available to them. That being said, "Kaboom" comes to mind. If this means what it looks like then we can expect another run to new highs soon. This of course ignores the "Trump factor" where some wild-ass news drives the market wild...
The most common question (or arguement) I receive is "how do you know these are professionals? This is just volume..." or something to that effect. Well, first I'd mention that the HeatMap indicator does not measure simply volume but trades size. Professional traders trade in size where the retail or small trader trades smaller,, maybe one or two lots. This isn't a criticism but an observation. If you want a more detailed explanation take a look at the HeatMap Indicator section on EminiEdge.com. Second most popular "question" is "...how do you know they're buying and not selling it down?" Well, professionals are always looking for value and buying lower and selling higher. This area isn't exactly at the low or high, they have too many contracts to liquidate overall so it's done over a range, on falling prices on the WAY to the low or rising prices on the WAY to the high. Not even the professionals know where the exact low or high is. However they don't typically buy high and sell higher (like a breakout, but of course there are some exceptions to this based on the timeframe being traded). One exception to this worth talking about briefly is when the professionals capitulate. This happens when the professionals are wrong (say what?), and yes, professionals are wrong time to time, and when this occurs they may start liquidating a t lower prices and accelerating price lower. This is not a pretty sight and fortunately not that common of an occurrence, but it does happen. Going with the odds however lets us make the assumption that the professional presence on falling prices is most likely accumulation not distribution. THIS is what the HeatMap is identifying.
So I leave you with this observation to ponder and add to your trading toolbox. In my world, trading with the professionals and not against them is a better bet. Keep in mind this happens across all timeframes and we can use this to make decisions real time. This daily chart is something I'm betting on for some of my longer term investments, but I'll be watching my day-trading tick charts for my intraday trades.
Hope this is helpful to you and as always, if it is, please feel free to share this on any site or post you like. A few suggestions are down the side of the site but hey, go crazy and surprise me with posting somewhere else. Who doesn't like surprises?
Anyway, Thanks and Good Trades!
Guten tag traders!
Well, well, well. All time highs hit today and what a fun day to trade it. Nice couple of long setups and quick profits. Love it when a plan comes together! Sometimes even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then...
For those that gave me a hard time and even ridiculed my comments (you know who you are)... it's not about right and wrong. It's about reading a chart and making the best assumptions you can based on your trading strategy.
Thought I'd do a quick video to talk about a new update to the configuration of the MTF-EEdgeTrend indicators (the "base" indicators are unaffected), giving a proverbial "heads-up" when a trend line S/R is about to print from higher or lower time frames (the "Home" time frame already does this). This is another edge we can take advantage of and remove a little stress while waiting for an entry... always a good thing. Every little edge helps! Other than that, a bit of a choppy week, fewer trades than normal but that's okay if our strategy keeps us out of the chop. Used to be one of my biggest issues, over trading and getting whipsawed in small range days which the EEdge indicators have all but eliminated for me, and I hope you too.
Anyway, looking forward to a great, volatile week!
Nice little entry and exit today . Breaking out on the larger time frame but catching it on the MTF. Apologies for the video quality. had some troubles. A cinematographer I'm not, but you'll get the point. I said filled at 79.25, meant to say 79.50. Gets away from you sometimes. Anyway, included a video of the trade this morning for your info...
Ni Hau Traders!
Hope your trading is going well. Awesome break of resistance into an initial uptrend as we forecast. I love it when a plan comes together! Review of a few different charts in this video including the ES, Bonds and Gold along with some multiple time frame setups. It was rollover week so had a little less interest on some of the days later in the week and decided to step aside on Friday, as apparently many did. Wednesday and Thursday had some interesting setups that showcase the EEdge indicators all too well. As the title of this post suggests I discuss selling low and buying high, or vice versa depending on who is trading where. Both are happening, buying and selling at the high and buying and selling at the low and I had a couple of rants about this very subject. I guess the moral of the story is to keep your emotions in check while trading, and if you can’t don’t call me, I’ll call you… Didn't your mother ever tell you "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all"? Always listen to your mother.
An updated look at the equities and bonds/gold seems to still support continued, maybe even explosive strength. Anything can happen however, the ES consolidation at resistance, new resistance for treasuries and an apparent lack of interest in safe haven gold seem to be lining up for a move. The professionals continue to be showing up on the down pulses so continue to trade what you see, not what you think... No video today, just my two cents on the continued consolidation...
A follow-up to the last video talking about long term patterns biasing your short term trades... Be mindful that you explore all possibilities and be prepared to trade it, REGARDLESS of the direction or action! React to what you see, not what you predict!
Yes Siree Bob. That's what I like to see, professional on cue. Now we get to see the enthusiasm if it's true selling, buying or an amateur flush out...
*** Update 6/3/2018 (below)
An updated look at the equities and bonds/gold ...
Quick video to start the week talking about some short term trading scenarios using some long term patterns. Nice when things line up. Important not to get married to a bias, be flexible and willing to switch if the action warrants. My trading is a formal set of "if-then" statements, probably a hold-over from my programming days, but I always know what the trades setup is with the information at hand. if it changes, it changes, don't predict just react.
Anyway, looking for a bit of volatility this week, let's hope.
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"Trader Joe" trades the Emini S&P exclusively and is the main influence behind EminEdge.com.
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