Guten Tag Traders,
Been optimizing the setup criteria for the strong trend following setup, both long and short over the last couple of months. Today happened to get both the uptrend entry and downtrend entry in the same day which is unusual but nice opportunity to explain what these setups look like.
Interesting that the volatility has been increasing lately, usually don’t get this at the tops so seems like more new highs are on the horizon. Long term investing is certainly paying off, just received a statement on one of my accounts and it showed +37%. Haven’t seen that in a while but I’ll take it!
Attached a real time trade recording as a video is worth a thousand pictures, right?
Had one of the type of days I hate to trade; opens up 20+ points already exhausted so longs are "chasing" and it is so strong that jumping in front of the moving train for a "reversal" is trading suicide. So the best thing I can do is first, tell myself "Do not chase, do not chase, do not chase..." Sit on my hands and wait for that one dainty pullback an hour or two into the day and hope like hell it doesn't reverse the second I hit the bid. In this case it worked out and waiting for the low time frame pullback in a larger time frame up move where the lowest risk entries are possible. Trump is making "BTFD" a way of life and the trades are more frequent than ever as evidenced by one of the recent posts "Buying it high and Selling it Higher" ... Misspoke a smidge and talked about 2886, sorry I meant to say 2386. Don't know what I'm saying sometimes until it's played back. Where'd that come from? Hell, I don't know...
Anyway, bagged out of the move WAY too early as usual and as followers know one of my biggest areas for improvement is to stretch the winners more. Gotta work on that! The moral of the story for today is one of keeping things in context. Get in the groove of the different time frames and be patient for your setup. Big trends are made of pulsations on the way up and on the way back down. Find the pulsations on the way down in a smaller time frame and you'll likely find a "downtrend", yes I said downtrend, in a smaller time frame. When that trend starts to end, this will likely be the pullback on the higher time frame. That's the sweet spot! A mentor once gave me a great bit of advice when I found myself over trading because I could talk myself into nearly anything looking like some type of trade setup. He said "wait for the trade to jump out and grab you. Until it does, let it go." That was more profound than I gave it credit for at the time. If I had to rationalize the trade in detail making a case for it, it probably wasn't strong and should be passed on. If I became overwhelmed with a possible entry and was looking for a reason this "wasn't" a setup, there were most likely ample reasons to hit the entry button. The single entry today was like that, in a sea of uptrend trend lines and new highs by the minute, a meek little low time frame support pops up and says "Hi There!" First sign of support after 1 hour and 10 minutes, just get on it and sit on it...
Hope this is useful to you, and if so I always appreciate the share! Got those dandy buttons down the side for your convenience but don't feel limited by those, go nuts...
Closing a great week of trading opportunities trading the Emini market. Had lots of opportunities and volatility for many types of trading plans. Still trading the market "Trump Effect" with higher highs with multiple CEOs contending to move more and more big businesses to (or back to) the US. Good for them and good for us.
As I researched a bit what effect Trump is expected to have on the market (for obvious reasons) I was stunned to see the amount of stories preaching doom and gloom, chaos in the streets, fires burning, dogs and cats mauling each other in the streets and fire and brimstone down from the heavens. It dawned on me that at least in my lifetime and probably in generations there has not been a president like him and this uncertainty, or more accurately the medias revulsion over not only Trumps's stated beliefs, but the outward and utter disgust for those Americans that could have possibly voted for someone that is admittedly pro-American, pro-business and anti-establishment. "How vulgar must you be to support someone of this caliber?" they must think. Well, from a business perspective, and yes trading is a business, wanting to put Americans to work with the nod to citizens doesn't seem so bad. And why shouldn't businesses do better? When you sign the front of the paycheck rather than the back it gives you a unique perspective. When there are more profits available there are more raises for your employees, more donations to your favorite charities, more investment back into the company so it can stay competitive and should I whisper when I say maybe even grow bigger? What the hell. I think we've been under liberal rule for so long that this is supposed to be our new normal and how dare us expect capitalism to thrive and for us as a people to do better if we work harder. That's just "old and antiquated" thinking, isn't it? Well, I think that's what we're supposed to believe. I'm not buying it. After all, Trump was never going to make it even into the primaries. A public joke blatantly played on the American people or even the world we were told. Then to win the republican primary which was simply a waste of time since Jeb Bush was the golden boy, out raising, out spending and intellectually out performing the group of dullards who had the audacity to even stand next to him on stage. Then there was the election itself with the chuckling commentators smiling and giggling with glee and I think one even wet themselves on-air while salivating over Hillary. She didn't even need to bother campaigning in many states as this was simply going through the motions for appearances sake. After all it was "her turn." There was a margin of at least 10% to her favor even at 9 PM on election eve. The rest is history and we're now 2 weeks into a Trump/Pence presidency. The first two weeks were a blur politically with the same commentators wetting themselves albeit for different reasons. Hmmm. Anyone remember Brexit?
Okay. You may be saying by now, "what the hell are you talking about?" You started talking about the market and the "Trump Effect" and you went on some tangent about the election. I guess you're right but my bigger point is this: Trading is a business where you grow your talent by working hard. You can be rewarded for this with more profits to do with what you want. They're your profits, right? Well, the prevailing thought in the media is not so fast. You need to give your profits to the trader who went out to party the night before, had a hangover and blew out his account the next day before noon. Doesn't that sound more fair to you? Everyone should benefit, not just you and if you suggest anything different you should be shunned and discredited. After all, you will certainly hurt their feelings if you have more profits than they do. I know, sounds stupid to me too. So here's my final point. Do your own research. Do your own due diligence. If you read reports from some talking head that says the economy is going to crash because of their moral imperative, or the converse, the market will explode, buy it and walk away... stop, think, and trade what you see, not what you think. It is up to you to improve yourself for the sake of you and your family. Work hard and be more profitable and don't be ashamed. Own your trading and the results you earn, good or bad. Don't be so shallow that you will discount everything someone says because you don't like the way it is said. Be an open minded professional that is willing to listen and make your own decision. After all it's the results that matter. Mrs. EminiEdge always reminds me (and rightfully so) that even when I complain about time that I "wasted" when reading and researching something and not coming out with a life changing epiphany that there is always something to be learned even if it was not what you were looking for or expected. Always that damned silver lining there if you look for it.
So when you hear or see something, don't be bullied into changing your opinion. If you don't agree that's okay, just don't feel the need to demean and destroy someone who doesn't share your view or say it in the way you think it should be said. This is a sign of great personal insecurity. Do not attempt to elevate yourself or your cause by verbally trying to demean someone else. This is petty and beneath you. Instead, learn from it and move on. How boring would it be if we we're all identical anyway? Ewwww.
You are a professional trader. Let everyone be envious because you are cool and calm while you take your profits or losses and are secure in your own beliefs even if you are alone with them. Have fun and don't believe everything you hear. Be the deviant that dares to think objectively and different from the crowd. Who knows, you could just be president someday. Oh yeah, and did I say "Trade what you see not what you think?" No? well, it was implied.
Finally have a decent internet connection in a far away land, and making hay while the sun shines (literally). In the down time getting caught up with some indicator updates with new functionality and some additional precision. I'm continuing to peck away at some really good questions and doing the best I can so be patient. Should have contacted everyone who is a EminiEdger (affectionately) to pick up the latest version of the EEdge Indicators so if you didn't get notified let me know and I'll follow up. I already saw something I'm going to upgrade... never ending updates apparently! :)
The market finally blasted up to new highs last week and got all confused, evidenced by the low range days and volume that rivals a holiday trade. Was looking for a gap-n-go trade today and that's exactly what we got, hope you all got a piece of it. As I've said in the past, when you get the trend moving overnight just "get on it and sit on it" hopefully after the first clear LRE. The real time trade attached here is not the trend trade of earlier but a later day counter trend trade long if you can believe it. Thought I'd show what is possible if you're looking at the market no matter what stage it is in. I don't like later day trades normally and like counter trend trades even less but with the time zone change and the "trading what I see, not what I think" mantra only makes sense to just do it! The EEdge Trend showed up the dandy counter direction setup (along with the EEdge Heatmap and EEdge Volume) for another quick 5 points/cnct. The larger picture 4K chart was still showing a big downtrend move though you could argue it made a bottom somewhere earlier in the morning. The LREs already started flipping which is the first sign in a change of direction so it was worth a shot.
Anyway hope it is useful to you. As always, appreciate the share as your vote of confidence.
Nook Neck Traders,
Quick update this morning as I just want to get my thoughts out for the trades I put on. Note that there may be more but when you get your four points per contract in the first half-hour or so, unless it is a fantastic setup, might be better to call it a day and go surfing early.
The trades here show jumping in and out of an already exhausting trend and as such short leash (quick profits) are recommended. The important thing to note is why you are jumping in and out, if it's just price, not good enough. If the reason is that there is an exit signal or worse yet a reversal signal against your position just dump it, it's all about preservation at that moment. Stay limber and make sure you are not blinded by your position, be open to the possibility that things have changed and your move is done, at least for the moment. For those old schoolers that purchased the EminiEdge Trading Manual E-Book" and not looking at the EEdge Indicators, there was also a picture perfect EE showing up on the second exit (about 9:15 AM Chicago) that is shown off the screen capture that screamed "Get Out"...
As always, hope this is useful tou you. If so, I'd appreciate a share somewhere, have these dandy little buttons down the side of the sreen for your convenience (or bottom on mobile). Don't be shy, I appreciate you taking the time!
Trade What You See, Not What You Think!
Quick vid today to mention how to enter on that runaway trend. Sometimes you just gotta have faith... (cue George Michaels...)
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