Pre-FOMC Rally, but is it Over?

Action this week is a little subdued, likely because of the looming FOMC coming on Thursday.  I actually enjoyed the lazier action so far, doesn’t have my nerves on-end as much as the last couple of weeks. 

Quick trade update today after a nice trending day up.  Based on the context, longs were in the cards early and remember that means that we’re waiting for our S/R levels to be broken to the upside and buying pullbacks until the nature changes.  I started the day earlier than usual, with my first trade long at 8:35 AM, then followed up with a long at 8:50 AM (1 and 2).  The first I was able to scalp out with 1-1/2 points (per lot) then 7 points on the next.  Since the action was calm the last few days I increased my lot size back up to 3 contracts instead of 2.  I stopped after that, not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth, and of course there was a dandy setup at (3) twenty minutes later.  That run was fast and never looked back until it hit the next resistance zone to the tick, and the sellers stepped in and the buyers took profits…  That little move would have been worth about 5 points.  There was a risky short at (4) which would not have worked out, but then flipped up for a continuation of the uptrend at (5) for another 4 possible points.  From there we turned to molasses, a great place to get chopped up and give back the days profits.  Fortunately there weren’t any great setups until later at (6) which was by the e-book, and could have netted another 5-6 points by the time we hit the next resistance zone.  So overall a good day for EminiEdge traders, and the zones pulled their weight for us today.

Keep in mind that with the FOMC comes some sporadic action that is worth standing aside for as shown in a previous update “Trends, FOMC and Achilles Heel...”  Wednesday will likely soften fairly early so watch out for the possible chop.  Followers know that I’m more of a “perma-bear” than not, but in my opinion we’re not in a normal correction here.  Bigger picture still points to a longer term pullback still coming ... “Short Covering Move or is the Correction Over?”  It seems that the FOMC is the perfect time to trap all those off guard traders who think the market only goes up.  Be ready for some fits and starts on Wednesday and possible shake-out Thursday, and remember “Trade What You See, Not What You Think!”

Good Trades,

Trader Joe