Quick video to start the week talking about some short term trading scenarios using some long term patterns. Nice when things line up. Important not to get married to a bias, be flexible and willing to switch if the action warrants. My trading is a formal set of "if-then" statements, probably a hold-over from my programming days, but I always know what the trades setup is with the information at hand. if it changes, it changes, don't predict just react.
Anyway, looking for a bit of volatility this week, let's hope.
Had a couple of timely questions regarding "draw downs". Could be something to do with the crappy action of late but as we all know we can't simply blame the market. There are things we can do to deal with and hopefully reverse this unpleasant situation and since I recently had a draw down of my own thought I'd do a post on how I dealt with it. Might make this a continuing educational series if there is enough interest, takes sooo much time to prepare, certainly don't to waste my time. Maybe all this stuff is well known to everyone else and I'm just stating the obvious, if so, apologies for that. Just look away then I'm hideous...
I'll attach a few screen shots here to give the gist of it...
In summary, trading drawdowns suck. : )
Well, the volatility dropped a little bit today ahead of rollover. Not sure if I'm happy or sad, kind of get used to the 50 point swings and taking 10 point/contract stabs along the way. February was one of my best months ever and I couldn't have done it without the wild market. That being said, even the exhilaration of a wild party gets old after too long and you just feel like sitting quietly over a boring bowl of corn flakes. My nerves can only take so much before I go crazy. Staring at every tick of the market is exhausting, especially when there is a crazy bid-ask spread and your trying to enter or exit. Today was a great range, keep it right about there please...
There were a few textbook long entries today that I talk about in the video, one nice one later that I didn't take. As I mentioned before, I like to trade around 8:00 to 11:00 or so. I find that before or after that is questionable for my setups so it works for me. This week might be a little slower due to rollover so don't forget that. Here's the video showing how I trade rollover in case you have forgotten.
Lastly, so a follower asked me recently: “How did you trade today? Were you profitable?”
My gut reaction was to respond with a yes or no answer, but after a moment I realized how quick traders are to fall into a trap. Let me explain:
The initial part of the question asks how I traded today. A good trading day is one in which I follow my well thought out and researched trade plan. This includes all setups, entries, and specific exit strategies. This plan is 100% formulated before the trade is placed each and every time. There is not a situation in which I do not know how the trade will go, it is a finite series of “if – then” statements. I may not know which path of “if – then” statements will be executed, but do know the probabilities of each one. The plan is researched to the degree that I know, statistically, what percentage of these trades will be profitable, IF AND ONLY IF the trade plan researched and documented is followed to the letter. Any deviation throws all the research and likely the entire plan out the window. We should never be figuring out a trade plan while trading. I repeat, NEVER! This is too late! So the question of how I traded is really answered by how well I followed my plan, not if I was profitable or not. So if the researched and documented trade plan is deemed to be profitable over some period of time then the question of profitability after one or two trades or one or two days is moot because I know if I follow my plan that there is a high likelihood that profits will be the inevitable outcome.
So to answer the follower’s questions: “I traded excellent today, thank you!” ;)
Hope the video is useful to you. If so, as always, I'd appreciate a like or share somewhere of your choosing. Down the right side of this page there are a few of the "hot links" but don't feel limited by that... Go nuts! Thanks in advance!
Holy Hell, what a week! If you wanted to know what it felt like when the coyote strapped an ACME rocket to his back in his relentless pursuit of the roadrunner, this week of trading would be it. Ranges the biggest in history, every news outlet has their own reason for it but really not having a clue. Regardless, we as traders don't care, just trade the crap out of it! Be careful if you're not confident or trying to fine-tune your trading strategy, this isn't the week to do it. Standing aside is a completely valid strategy, see rule #8.
Have to say this week gave me a bit more anxiety than normal but exhilaration came with it. Had some great stretch targets but also had some stop hits... and in a hurry... Whew.
I walk through a few setups, entries and exits in the video and overall reflect on the week in review. The first minute of the video is how it felt while trading this week... WooooOOOOooooo.... Ahhhhhh... Whew... repeat. If you don't want that excitement, start at index 1:00 min. But, if you can put yourself in their mental state, you'll get what I mean. If you don't hurl it makes you a little stronger for the next time.
Hope you had a great week of trading as well...
Guten Tag Traders,
Been optimizing the setup criteria for the strong trend following setup, both long and short over the last couple of months. Today happened to get both the uptrend entry and downtrend entry in the same day which is unusual but nice opportunity to explain what these setups look like.
Interesting that the volatility has been increasing lately, usually don’t get this at the tops so seems like more new highs are on the horizon. Long term investing is certainly paying off, just received a statement on one of my accounts and it showed +37%. Haven’t seen that in a while but I’ll take it!
Attached a real time trade recording as a video is worth a thousand pictures, right?
Bonne année Traders,
Caught a nice little long trade to start out the first full week of the new year. Likely would be more in it to the long side but sooooo slow, not worth the risk of staying longer into the afternoon. Don't record the actual trades that often as I find it a distraction, one of the reasons I've been resisting a trade room. If there would be enough interest maybe I'd reconsider, not sure...
Well, with out further ado...
Hauʻoli makahiki hou Traders!
Hope Santa found your chimney and didn't give you any dense fossil fuel in your stocking! Found a few decent setups in the last few weeks and in the beginning stages of validating an additional trade setup. So far so good. Always struggled hitting those runaway trends and this little dandy is picking some of them off. For some reason the image of being stalked by something higher up the food chain keeps coming to mind while trading. Hmmm... Not sure why...
New computer is finally stabilized and now that the holidays are nearly behind us looking forward to a raging 2018 for trading. The increased resolution is nice in some ways but reduces the fonts in certain displays so I curse at it once in a while, which surprisingly doesn't make it much better. Huh. I'm going to keep trying anyway...
Anyway, last blog of the year for me, going to find some warmer climate for a bit rather than the current deep freeze. -25 Degrees F, -40 with windchill, are you kidding me? Just... not... right.
Good Trades all!
Been having a myriad of issues lately, not the least of which has been a hardware failure on the trading PC. Never realize how many programs, setups, passwords and configurations that can screw things up until you are forced to face them all at once. Having a bit of a struggle with the profits as of late as well, happens to everyone at some time or another. Good time to dig in, study the charts and... not change my trading plan. That's one thing I learned is to not deviate significantly when you have a few losses but still analyze what's going on. Crappy periods happen, as long as they're not self induced don't start off on a new direction right away, nothing is perfect all the time in every market condition.
Since I'm using some new hardware and software and configurations, some that are okay, others that, well... suck, let me know how the video works for you. Greater resolution makes everything smaller, not sure why this is required as none of us are getting any younger and squinting at the screen can't be an improvement... Well, that's a discussion for another day.
Moshi moshi traders!
Quick week in review video addressing a question from a follower regarding the trades I took. Had a nice week, no losing trades for the strategy though I suppose some could argue there was more to be had. Well, always more to learn.
Anyway, hope you had a great trading week.
What's the dizzle Traders!
Apologies that I haven't done a video for a few weeks, been busy doing a bit of work on morphing the EminiEdge Trading Strategy to slant more objective than subjective. Anyone who has followed me for very long knows this is an ongoing goal of mine and I was able to take it one step closer. Interesting how advancements come in "spurts" for me. I think my mind just needs some time to percolate before I can put proverbial pen to paper. Anyway, made a few strides forward again that I talk about a bit in the video and this allowed me to take an objective look at my trades and verify my setups and execution, and I realized that I take a lot more short trades than long, even in this "... Just buy the dip, what are you stupid?" market run. Well, it works for me so to each their own. I guess that makes me "stupid" according to the trolls, "stupid is what stupid does..."
Anyway, show the last couple of days entries for me, of course shorts for ol' Trader Gump. Funny how those that berate anyone even dumb enough to consider shorts don't show their trades real time... or their equity curve. : ) Some things never change.
Hope you had a good trading week!
Had a decent trade early into the day, and good thing, that's all there was for me was the one. Seems like the days of "over trading" are behind me, or at least on-hold. Good riddance. This little trade shows the outline of how I take trades, what I'm thinking and why. It's good to look back at what you've done and critique your trading even though sometimes it's tough, especially after a loss. Sometimes the trades aren't as smooth as this one as the market is ever changing, but the nuances are similar time after time...
Anyway, hope you enjoy the video and if it is useful to you I really appreciate a share on one of the side buttons on the site...
Pip Pip Traders,
Wild moves today in stark contrast to yesterdays flop fest. These moves are tailored to whack the retail trader who is buying every little dip or selling every little bounce and tapping the stop right above/below the last pivot. Remember that your plan needs to be able to accommodate these types of swings and still let you survive long term, even though it might seem like the market floating around like some little snowflake is now the norm.
Anyway, had a nice trade today and got whacked on one, and included the setups from yesterday as well. Had a real time trade from yesterday recorded and ended up botching it so gave up... sorry about that. I am always squeamish posting the real time trades anyway as somehow it feels like I'm bragging or something and that's not my intent. I post these so the followers can see what I do sometimes as I know it can be confusing stuff and it helps to see what others are thinking when trading. If these are helpful to you, please click the share buttons on the side of the site. That is all the thanks I need to keep doing these!
Decided to do something a little different since the action today didn't offer up any entries. In this video I walk through last weeks setups, entries and follow-through (sound familiar?) during my normal trading day (first couple of hours). It's so important to follow your plan while trading and that is only possible if you trust your plan. No "figuring out" how to trade while you trade (B.S. Trading) and that's only possible if you believe your plan. I had a comment the other day asking "...what if the stops move to here... and after the bar does this and wait for this then..." good gravy. Not sure why we're inclined to make things so complicated, maybe we're so used to seeing plans that are incredibly complex and we are conditioned to think that's the only way they work. Sorry, doesn't do it for me. As my plan evolves it gets simpler, not more complicated and it makes it easy for me to follow, or like today, sit on the sidelines.
Anyway, hope you had a great trading day, and if this is useful to you I always appreciate the share!
Slow ugly days seem to be becoming more the rule rather than the exception. For the record, don't like it. Pulled the 4 points/cntrct out of the move but taking too long IMHO. Still amazes me how I can ALMOST get suckered into not trading my plan...
PS. As always, if this is useful to you, appreciate the share...
Quick video today showing a long that I got out of too early but was wearing me out. Hate when the market is diddling along; my coffee gets cold. I know, right? I have problems. Who should be subjected to such a travesty?
Anyway, the move finally took off nearly four hours later, unfortunately not my bag. The entry was still right on and I included the real time trade for review so thought it was still worth posting. Makes a point as well that every trade every day can't be a big running profit maker. Sometimes you take what the market will give, unemotional, following your plan mechanically, and walk away in the "green" so you're ready for tomorrow. Had a little trouble with the video software so apologies if something's off a bit.
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"Trader Joe" trades the Emini S&P exclusively and is the main influence behind EminEdge.com.
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